סמינר בהתנהגות ארגונית

Does wishful thinking exist? Do people inflate their subjective probability estimates for those outcomes they desire? Past research suggests that they do. More recently, however, the robustness of this effect was questioned (Bar-Hillel & Budescu, 1995; Bar-Hillel, Budescu, & Amar, 2008; Krizan & Windschitl, 2007, 2009; Vosgerau, 2010; Windschitl, Smith, Rose, & Krizan, 2010). In an attempt to reconcile this mixed evidence, we suggest that wishful thinking in the form of inflated probabilities for desired outcomes is likely to be manifested only for events which are perceived as highly probable to begin with. This hypothesis was tested and supported in four scenario studies and two laboratory experiments. Based on our findings we delineate specific boundary conditions under which the desirability bias is likely to operate. We discuss our findings in terms of the desirability bias as a coping mechanism that is strategically used for self regulation